The following is a digest of coverage on Counter.Social with more information provided now that confirmation is in. As always, you can follow me @Render for real-time updates.
A few weeks ago, during the Sabbath on April 13th, there was confirmation of at least one Iranian Shaheed 136 in flight over southern Iraq headed for Israel. Shortly after, IDF confirmed more than 100 drones were being tracked heading inbound from Iran while preparing for additional attack waves of cruise and/or ballistic missiles.
This was the beginning of Iran's retaliation for an IDF strike that killed a number of IRGC officers in Syria a few weeks ago. The commanding IRGC officer who was killed, along with most of his staff, was previously liaison/coordinator with Hamas on Oct 7th.
Jordan, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Syria, Kuwait, and Iran all closed their air space to civilian traffic. There were multiple confirmations that Jordan had opened its air space to Israeli fighters. IDF, USAF, and Jordanian fighters were airborne and intercepting drones. IDF and USAF were also operating over Syria with Syrian/Russian air defenses "on alert.” This usually means the Syrian anti-aircraft missile crews are hiding in their bunkers.
Deconfliction can be cool, kids.
Rocket warning sirens were heard in northern Israel on the Lebanese border as the Houthi’s launched drones out of Yemen toward Israel, albeit late to the party.
These guys aren't good at timing this sort of thing. Don't they have a copy of CMANO that they can practice with?
IDF reported fighter jets, David's Sling (medium range SAM), and Iron Dome (short range SAM) were deployed to intercept. Arrow-2 and Arrow-3 theater defense SAM's intercepted ballistic missiles over Syria and Jordan. There was visual confirmation of cruise missiles in flight over Iraq heading for Israel and video of a ballistic missile being hit by air defense and breaking up in flight over Jerusalem.
(Persia just fired on the 3rd holiest city in Islam.)
In total, about 185 drones, 36 cruise missiles, 130 ballistic missiles were launched at Israel. All of the drones and cruise missiles were intercepted before reaching Israeli air space by the Flying Circus which included:
Fighter jets from Israel, USAF, USN, RAF, Jordan, and Saudi Arabia.
AWACS-type aircraft from Israel, USAF, USN, and Saudi Arabia.
Israeli, USAF, and RAF tanker aircraft.
USN ships and fighter jets in the Red Sea for low level and ballistic missile defense.
Unknown types of French aircraft also involved.
Of the nine Iranian ballistic missiles that got through, all hit in and around the Nevatim air base in the Negev desert that damaged a C-130 cargo plane, several hangers and left a big crater in an unused runway. The same base is home to the IDF's F-35's and Israel's version of Air Force One.
Sadly, a 7yr-old Israeli-Bedouin girl was injured and, last I heard, remains in critical condition.
The ballistic missiles were intercepted by a combination of Israeli Arrow-2, Arrow-3, and USN SM-3 SAMs. Israel’s Arrow-3 SAM took out at least one Iranian ballistic missile in space. I repeat… IN SPACE. The remaining damage was caused by debris from intercepted missiles that struct the Palestinian towns of Umm al-Fahm and in the Arad area, as well as areas in Jordan.
By Sunday, April 14th, the region quieted. There were sporadic rocket and drone attacks still coming out of HizbAllah controlled Lebanon, but no more cruise or ballistic missiles from Iran.
Israel could put a single Jericho II ballistic missile with a 1000kg HE warhead into Khamenei's bedroom and there is nothing that Iran could do to stop it.
Assuming that published US and Israeli intel is accurate in the claim that Iran has around 500 missile silos (and that probably plus or minus another dozen or so) for their large missiles...
That means that Iran fired more than 1/5th of their current launch capability and hit nothing of military value.
The missile experts I follow tell me that it could take Iran 1 to 2 weeks to reload those silos, assuming that they have reloads ready to install. Not all of Iran's long and medium range missiles that can reach Israel require silos. Some can be ground launched or fired from a trailer.
While we know how many ballistic missiles were fired, it's not known yet how many of each type Iran fired, it may be a while before all of the missile debris in located and identified. We also know that not all of the Iranian ballistic missiles made it out of Iran. At least some crashed shortly after launch and others failed to launch at all. Either blowing up in the silo or leaving the armed and fully fueled missile in the silo and a really hairy EOD clean up job afterwards.
Summing up:
The first, and slowest, wave launched were 186 drones. Somewhere around the time that those drones crossed the Jordanian border with Iraq and were first being intercepted by Coalition fighter jets, Iran fired a second wave consisting of 36 cruise missiles.
None of the drones survived. Fighter pilots train using drones as targets.
Around the time that the Coalition fighter jets began intercepting the second wave of cruise missiles an Iranian representative to the UN announced that “The matter was concluded.” And then Iran fired a wave of 130 ballistic missiles at Israel.
I don't think that any of the drones or cruise missiles ever reached the Israeli border. But at least nine of the ballistic missiles did somewhat inaccurately reach Israel. The rest were intercepted by the combination of Israeli Arrow-2 and Arrow-3, and USN Patriot PAC-3 anti-ballistic missiles.
We’ll cover the Israeli response in the next Stack.
/// Cannon Fodder
Light Reading on Heavy Topics
The Evil Campaign to Remove Jews from the Public Square ~ Via Commentary.org
High-Level Iranian Spy Ring Busted in Washington ~ Via TabletMag.com
Iran Ship Linked to Houthi Attacks Goes Home Amid Tensions ~ Via Bloomberg (Tensions… Is that what they’re calling it?)
Meanwhile, In Russia
Ok, now that two of these have been spotted in Ukraine, it's real. Underneath that barn shaped armor box is a Russian T-72. either the Russians have achieved the ultimate in cope cage anti-drone defense or this is the Russian attempt at keeping their turrets from flying into space.
Spoiler: It didn't work either time.
In other news, Russia has renamed the Wagner Group remnants located in Africa to...Africa Corp. I shit you not. Either they're hoping that nobody remembers who used that name first or they just don't care about the pretense any longer.
Google “Kosher Phone”
You’re welcome.
Who Wood Have Thunk It?
Standard Brief
/// Feeding the Meme Grinder
/// EOF
For ongoing real-time coverage, you can follow my account on Counter.Social. I have a public landing page activated, so no account is needed. Lurk away!
(Persia just fired on the 3rd holiest city in Islam.)- yeah my thoughts exactly.
AND
This! Kosher phone! Yeah baby!